Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
